Climate Security, Water Governance, and Resilience How Climate-Induced Water Stress and Migration Challenge State Capacity

Abstract

This study examined how climate-induced water stress and migration pressures jointly influenced state capacity, and whether water governance quality and resilience capacity buffered institutional strain. A longitudinal panel dataset covering 148 sovereign states over 20 years (N = 2,960 country-year observations) was analyzed using fixed-effects regression models with cluster-robust standard errors. Climate-induced water stress was found to have a statistically significant negative association with state capacity (β = −0.21, p < .001), particularly within fiscal and service delivery domains. Migration pressure also demonstrated a significant negative effect (β = −0.17, p = .005), with stronger impacts observed in administrative coordination indicators. The interaction between water stress and migration was negative and significant (β = −0.11, p = .006), indicating that institutional strain intensified under compound stress conditions. Marginal effects analysis showed that the impact of water stress increased from −0.18 at low migration levels to −0.29 at high migration levels. Moderation analysis revealed that stronger water governance reduced the magnitude of the water stress effect (β = 0.09, p = .025), while resilience capacity significantly buffered compound pressure (β = 0.12, p = .003). The within-model R² increased from 0.47 in the baseline model to 0.57 in moderation models. Findings demonstrated that environmental scarcity and demographic redistribution operated both independently and interactively to challenge state capacity, while governance quality and resilience functioned as measurable institutional buffers.